Institute for the Study of Asymmetric Conflict

It's probably the question that gets asked more than any other on this day: where were you on September 11? It's taken for granted that we all remember exactly where we were and what we were doing. 

Nor is the assumption an erroneous one. 

Yes, I do indeed remember where I was and what I was doing at that moment.  I was writing up an analysis piece on the Taliban's assassination of the commander of the northern alliance for the Institute for Counter-Terrorism. The news on the radio reported that a plane had hit one of the Towers. I stopped typing and began web surfing to find out if it was an accident or an act of terrorism. Then the second plane hit, and everyone in the building headed down the hall to the conference room, in which we had a television showing CNN.

When I retired from ICT some years back, I went through my computer, clearing out old files, backing up those I might need. I came across that analysis piece on the Taliban assassination. I never completed it. 

Does U.S. President Barack Obama’s decision to suspend his threat of a military attack on Syria represent a victory for deterrence or “an act of provocative weakness”?

In a recent Foreign Policy article, NYU professor Louis Klarevas takes issue with the White House's labeling of the recent Benghazi attack as a “self-evident” act of terrorism, since it is not yet clear that the attack was pre-planned. In fact, Professor Klarevas' standards for premeditation are unreasonably high.

Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) is often touted as the newest phase in the evolution of warfare, the shape of things to come in modern conflicts, where victory is in the field of public opinion rather than the battlefield. But is there there really anything new in all this? As with any worthwhile question, the answer is "yes and no".

Deterrence is, first and foremost, a conversation between rivals. For it to be effective, both sides need to be convinced that the other side is, in fact, deterred.  Can Israel be satisfied that Iran will not conduct a preemptive strike? Can Iran rest assured that Israel is convinced enough that Iran is deterred enough not to strick first?